Thursday, August 28, 2014

Greater internet f.. theory vs 4 fun ppl theory

We all know the infamous comic:

It's consensually accepted, even among scientists. We see it all the time in action over the internet. But two recent researches offer a much brighter perspective that I'll call "4 fun ppl theory". The first research I reviewed on Monday, stating that people with bad personality traits are likely to post annoying or idiotic messages:
Please note that these people posted on their own Facebook page, identified with their real life name, clearly to be seen by family and co-workers. So anonymity, which is key part of the greater internet f... theory was not present.

The second research was done by the young winner of the Google Science Fair: she found that 93% of the posters do not publish a comment if they are warned that it is hurtful. She simply created a software that seeked hurtful words and created a pop-up informing the user that his message will hurt people, is he sure to proceed publishing? Those who mean to be trolls would ignore a popup.

Let me offer the "4 fun ppl theory", which explains the widespread horrible behavior and the recent research: those we consider trolls are people with honest intention to positively socialize, but their extremely low social skills cause them to post hurtful or annoying things instead. My formula is "basement dweller + audience + lack of clear rules or authority = total f..wad".

I know it's hard to believe that one can be so incompetent that he posts obviously hurtful messages without hurting intent. But that comes from our narrow scope of people. The ones you consider "socially inept" are still part of your circles, like the co-worker who always skips the chat at the water cooler. Just like the ones you call dumb are still part of your professional life, like the janitor. But you are aware of the fact that there are almost a billion illiterates in the World, people who are much-much "dumber" than your janitor. Then there must be similar amount of "social illiterates" who are similarly much worse than your introvert co-worker.

The "4 fun peep xd" is a bizarre mental image in the head of basement dwellers about a socially successful person who is funny, friendly, sexy and connected. Of course their image is horribly flawed and
  • what they consider funny, others see annoying or dumb
  • what they consider friendly, others see as fraternization (think of "bro"-spamming)
  • what they consider sexy, others see misogynist and sexist
  • what they consider being connected ("in the know"), others see meme-spamming and word butchering
Why don't we see them behave the same way in real life? Because of the clear rules and authority. They are not mentally ill, they are capable of following rules. They know that they are supposed to ask for items from a shopkeeper and not telling him jokes. They know that they are supposed to work in their workplace instead of having sex. If they'd forget themselves, an authority figure would soon appear and put an end to their "fun". However in relaxed social situations they try to be friendly and fun which never ends well.

The solution to the harmful internet presence is, removing the key feature of the "4 fun ppl theory": "lack of clear rules or authority". A group that has to include basement dwellers must have clear and present rules and officers keeping it. It's crucial to understand that general guidelines like "don't be a dick" don't work, as the basement dwellers are unable to understand that their "4 fun" behavior is "being a dick" for everyone else. Rather using certain words, posting offtopic, posting with bad grammar should be banned. The rules must be literal, clear, written with the goal to be understandable with someone of zero social skills. So "don't insult women" is bad rule, "don't say anything about sex, genitals or nudity" is a good rule, because they are unable to see that women don't find it funny if a stranger tells them to "post pix of ur tits". I know it's hard to believe that they don't know that. But they are virgins for a reason.

The tragedy of the "4 fun ppl" is that they put their worst inability, their lack of social skills to the front, by trying to be funny and friendly. The goal is to make them focus on their existing (or at least improvable) abilities instead of their disastrous "4 fun peep xd" persona. To make them think of themselves as a "good scout" or "reliable logi pilot" instead of "funny guy" or "good friend". Why? Because "good scout" is something they can become, but they will never, in a million years will be a "funny guy" and whenever they try, they'll fail and usually insult or annoy people in the process.

Please note that I did not deny that some people are purposefully abusive. They are the 7% who posted their comment after the warning. But they are a criminal minority and most of the "trolls" are just too unskilled to see what they are doing.

Wednesday, August 27, 2014

Goons in the closet

The ratting data made it clear what Goons are: carebears. They farm harder than anyone in the game. Literally harder than equal amount of renters who pay for the privilege of not doing PvP.

Before you'd consider it a cheap Goon bashing, it's not. I don't see problems in being a "carebear". I don't think making ISK is "dishonorable" or "low". I'm making ISK. While I'm having much more effective ISK-making methods, I accept that for a casual player with 1-2 accounts and random play time, undocking and hitting the nearest anom is the optimal way of making ISK. I don't hate them for ratting.

I hate them for not spearheading the "fleetbear" ethos, but on the contrary, outscream the "elite PvP" crowd in spewing insults to the "carebears". For going to pogroms against "highsec carebears". For taking highsec POCOs without any intention to use them, just to give "carebears" a finger (this was a great idea). For demanding their minions to click paplinks but not accepting ISK donations as forms of contribution to the coalition. They never admitted being carebears, I caught them. They are like those loud, obnoxious homophobic activists who are caught being gay.

Genuinely "straight" PvP-ers don't hate carebears, but seek mutually beneficial relationship with them: renting. When Goons were finally forced to open renting space, they did it with openly insulting their renters and using every mistake and fine print to kill them. No wonder they flee.

If only Goons could come out of the closet, accept what they are and welcome their fellow carebears, they would not only be much happier, but also much more powerful. ISK is already their power source. They should admit it openly.

One way or another they will. Either by embracing the idea, or by being driven away from their famed ratting land.

PS: Goon minion 1.5B carebear boat and 5B pod lost to PL renters.
Real PvP-ers on the other hand bravely engaged a CFC capital ship in cruisers and emerged victorious!
Finally: they should have stayed in Branch ratting.

Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Look who is ratting here!

Dotlan saves and serves all NPC, ship kill and sov change data, for every region, every day. For example here is the Fountain ratting data for 2013/01/01. You can manually download this page. For extracting the data from the mess it returns, I wrote a little program. Hanura H'arasch mass-downloaded for me all the data for June and July this year, all regions. You can use it too.

Let's see the nullsec toplists, by sov holder alliance and by region (million rats). Of course there is no guarantee that the owner of the sov ratted, but I doubt if many PL guys rat in Deklein:

Surprises after surprises. The first is how much Providence dwellers rat, despite their bad truesec. By the way the common belief of "better sec, more ratting" isn't really true. There is such correlation, but weak as the standard distribution is twice as big as the average (944, 1891), despite every point is the 2-months average rat count:
Secondly, NPC-null is unused. Their rat kill per system per day is deep red, meaning way below the total nullsec average. The only exceptions are Serpentis and Mordus' Legion, but they have only a handful of systems. Maybe some space could be changed into conquerable. Thukker Tribe and ORE spaces are especially unused, first for having agents in highsec, second for having no rewards at all (ORE faction mining equipment is worse than T2).

Thirdly, HERO coalition members - despite being in huge numbers in relatively small space - barely use their systems. BRAVE and HONOR systems are deep in the red. This alone questions their war against Providence. Why take space if you already don't use yours? Maybe the action fitting the true needs of the members would be moving to NPC space.

Of course the elephant in the room is Goonswarm Federation ratting twice as much as their own renters. Their home region, Deklein sees nearly twice as much ratting as the second highest Branch - home of their worst PvP-er minion, FCON, who are the #5 ratters with deep green system usage. Killing more than 10% of the total null rats, the GSF corps pull several hundred billion ISK ratting tax every month. They are barely outperformed by all the renters of Pandemic Legion.

Below you can see the daily ratting results of total highsec and lowsec. At first, it's hard to not see that less and less people play EVE. Secondly, there is a clear weekly pattern, significantly more people play on the weekends than on the workdays, Saturdays being the peak (red arrows). Is nullsec similar?
Well, the decrease is missing. It seems that the nullsec players are more stable, EVE is losing highsec and lowsec casuals. The weekly pattern is present here too. The title of the chart is "rest of nullsec", because the top 4 ratters are missing. By the way, this "rest of null" is shrinking. They killed 47% of the rats in June and 40% in July, despite the top four didn't claim more Sov in the summer.

B0T clearly has the weekly pattern, the rest can't really be seen from the large changes (Deployments? Team Security is in action?). So I made a calculation where every day was compared to the average of the 3 days before and after it, then calculated the difference of Monday-Thursday and Saturday-Sunday. The bigger it is, the bigger the oscillation is:
In lowsec, rest of null, Goon space and in B0T space people rat less on workdays, which means they have a job or school. In PBLRD and especially N3 space, nolife play or botting is dominant. It seems the Goons are telling the truth that the little Goon with his ratting ship is out in Deklein and not the botters. Well, better for us, since hunting bots is harder as they warp out instantly when a neutral enters local.

PS: these carriers won't increase the Deklein ratting count.

Monday, August 25, 2014

How does a basement dweller sound like?

Some people just can't live without emoticons, abbreviations, cursewords and intentional misspells. "wysosrs bitches? im here 4 gudfites n fun lol". If you read my blog back in the WoW years, you know that I literally banned such speak in my guild. I found them sign of being morons and slackers.

Scientists from the University of Pennsylvania studied millions of Facebook posts of volunteers who also filled out personality tests. They've found that language usage strongly correlates with personality traits. They used the "big five" personality model.

Openness to experience involves six dimensions, including active imagination (fantasy), aesthetic sensitivity, attentiveness to inner feelings, preference for variety, and intellectual curiosity. These facets are significantly correlated, so openness can be viewed as a global personality trait consisting of a set of specific traits, habits, and tendencies that cluster together.
The people with with high openness used these phrases a lot:
While people who reject new say:

Conscientiousness is the personality trait that is defined as being thorough, careful, or vigilant; it implies a desire to do a task well. Conscientious people are efficient and organized as opposed to easy-going and disorderly. They exhibit a tendency to show self-discipline, act dutifully, and aim for achievement; they display planned rather than spontaneous behavior; and they are generally organized and dependable. The people with with high conscientiousness used these phrases a lot:
Easy-going and disorderly people say:

Extroversion is "the act, state, or habit of being predominantly concerned with obtaining gratification from what is outside the self". Extroverts tend to enjoy human interactions and to be enthusiastic, talkative, assertive, and gregarious. Extroverts are energized and thrive off of being around other people. Introversion is "the state of or tendency toward being wholly or predominantly concerned with and interested in one's own mental life". They often take pleasure in solitary activities such as reading, writing, using computers, hiking and fishing. The archetypal artist, writer, sculptor, engineer, composer and inventor are all highly introverted. An introvert is likely to enjoy time spent alone and find less reward in time spent with large groups of people, though he or she may enjoy interactions with close friends. Trust is usually an issue of significance: a virtue of utmost importance to introverts is choosing a worthy companion. They prefer to concentrate on a single activity at a time and like to observe situations before they participate.
Extroverts used these phrases a lot:
Introverts used these phrases a lot:

Agreeableness is a personality trait manifesting itself in individual behavioral characteristics that are perceived as kind, sympathetic, cooperative, warm and considerate. People who score high on this dimension tend to believe that most people are honest, decent, and trustworthy. People scoring low on agreeableness are generally less concerned with others' well-being and report having less empathy. Therefore, these individuals are less likely to go out of their way to help others. People very low on agreeableness have a tendency to be manipulative in their social relationships. They are also more likely to compete than to cooperate. Agreeableness is considered to be a cluster of: trust, straightforwardness, altruism, compliance, modesty, and tender-mindedness.
The people with with high agreeableness used these phrases a lot:
Not so likable people say:

Neuroticism is characterized by anxiety, moodiness, worry, envy, and jealousy. Individuals who score high on neuroticism are more likely to experience such feelings as anxiety, anger, envy, guilt, and depressed mood. They respond more poorly to stressors, are more likely to interpret ordinary situations as threatening, and minor frustrations as hopelessly difficult. They are often self-conscious and shy, and they may have trouble controlling urges and delaying gratification. Neuroticism is a risk factor for phobia, depression, panic disorder, and other anxiety disorders, all of which are traditionally called neuroses.
Stable people used these phrases a lot:
And the neurotics said:

My cup runneth over. The people I classified as morons and slackers for their lolspeak, emoticons, curses, stupid abbreviations, intentional misspells are found by scientists to be closed, lazy, neurotic assholes. And what probably hurts them most: introverts. They are introverts like us, but because we have goals, play to win and talk like human beings, they call us "basement dwellers" and in reality it's them. Science says so!

The researchers didn't tell us why do introverted, closed, disorderly, unlikable neurotics talk this way on Facebook and in our games. I believe the solution is that the researchers only see a subset of introverts: those who do the extrovert-only activity of posting on Facebook. Remember, introverts like solitary activities and choose to not participate in social situations. Beside happy extroverts, they see are "basement dwellers", people who want to engage in social activities, but fail to.

"4 fun ppl :d" is a bizarre image in the head of the basement dwellers. It's what they believe how a successful extrovert looks like and they try to emulate it:
  • They know that successful extroverts express lot of emotions. So they spam emoticons. Here is a perfect example: ":D" is a picture of a laughing face that any extrovert would naturally recognize. The dots are the eyes, the D is the open, laughing mouth. Basement dwellers can't decode it, they believe it's a text and being lazy, they don't press shift or misspell it, creating ":d", "xd", "d:" and so on, despite these aren't pictures and mean nothing.
  • They know that successful extroverts value romantic love. So they spam "fucking", "bitches", "boobs" and porn links. After all these are the signs of romance and intimacy, right?
  • They know that successful extroverts have friends and value friendship. So they call every Tom, Dick and Harriett they meet on the internet "friend" or even "bro". They yell loudly every possible occasion that they play a game only because their friends are there, which is stupid: real extroverts would just close the game and meet their friends.
  • They know that successful extroverts do lot of fun activities. So their favorite word is "fun". They don't recognize that extroverts don't use the generic word "fun" (check the word cloud!), but specific words to describe how they want to have fun. When the basement dweller wears the "4 fun peep :d" hat, he is like the redneck in a suit who goes into a fancy restaurant and orders "fancy food" since he can't specify.
  • They see that groups of successful extroverts use terms that only group members understand. For example "quarterback" has meaning only to those who follow American Football. These words describe events or objects that appear in the context of the activity. You learn them as you learn the concept they mean (football fans know how quarterbacks play). Since basement dwellers don't want to engage in activities but want to engage with the people, they don't understand the merit of these words and believe that they are "secret codewords that only the cool kids know". So they create their own "secret codewords" by butchering ordinary words, creating "spai", "wut", "gudfite" and the rest of the abominations, without any special meaning ("spai" just means "spy").
The tragedy of the basement dwellers is that real extroverts don't really play video games, as sitting in your home alone, front of the computer is as introverted as it gets. The rest of the gamers are happy introverts who enjoy performing in a raid or build a pixel spaceship empire. We engage in conversations only in a game-technical manner ("jump!", "gate is red", "sheep that add!"). So their target audience isn't even here! Not like it would help them if the extroverts would be here, since successful extroverts are very different from the "4 fun ppl :d" image in their head. So they keep sitting in their basement alone, while calling us basement dwellers for not being inclusive and friendly with them when they obstruct our gameplay with their incompetence and bizarre attempts to socialize.

Hint: have the link of this research ready and link it whenever someone fills the chat with emoticons, cursewords, l33tspeak and such. Let them know what this tells about them. But don't expect miracles! Their response will likely be "lol i said it 4 fun m8 xd". They are, what they are.

Sunday, August 24, 2014

Weekend minipost: asymmetric warfare

This is a great battle report. An approximately 70-men Goon fleet caught a half as big ragtag fleet, or rather multiple independent small groups. The result is what everyone would expect, the ragtag pirates got their ass kicked. Goons lost 5 ships and 2 pods, the invaders (the battle was in Deklein) lost 27 ships and 14 pods.

The question is: "who won the battle?"

Captain obvious is wrong! The massacred pirate rabble lost 1.6B, while the victorious Goons lost 4.4B, thanks to a 3B ratting paladin, its 900M pod and a 500M ratting Gila.

Tiericide greatly decreased the power difference of T1 and T2/faction ships, making cheap crap competitive in PvP. This means that total destruction of a doctrine fleet is more like a nuisance than a loss. The only way to damage your opponents is catching his haulers and ratters. This is why enemy coalitions do less damage to CFC than random pirate rabble.

People don't see the effect of tiericide on the meta. There is no point of fleet battles anymore. The enemy won't care if they lose, it's rather just "content" to them. It's already replaced. The future is in asymmetric warfare, going after assets they actually care about.

This is the future!

Saturday, August 23, 2014

Weekend minipost: Feminism

I must share a quote I've heard in a discussion:

"No means no. Always. The choice of the woman must be respected."
[few seconds silence + angelic smile]
"except if she says no to Feminism, when she is an uneducated, brainwashed victim who doesn't know what's good for her."

On Monday comes a wonderful research result. No not mine. I just wish it was.

PS: Dual tanked Nightmare day.
Transport frigate day.
Perfect pod for a 20M ship.
Decced freighther in Amarr and Perimiter.
Wasn't stabbed enough day.
Fitting name.

Friday, August 22, 2014

Dotlan help needed

Update: I got the help I needed, thank you, ignore this post. This is how the Sov wwnership was in Fountain at 2013-01-01:

This is how many player ships and pods were killed that day:

And this is how many rats died:

Did I find some 20 months old screenshots? No. Dotlan keeps this information, and you can see it yourself, now (Sov, Ship kills, NPC kills). This data is available for every region, every day for years back.

Needless to say how valuable this information is. But I don't know how to get it besides clicking on the various regions and days and copying the information into EXCEL, which would probably make the most patient person mad.

The last resort is making screenshots and getting a picture-reading software. But there must be some more intelligent way of accessing this data. It should be available in chart form somewhere. Does anyone know how to get it? Please write it in a comment.

PS: ironic comment of the day: "... is certainly not running out of ideas any time soon, the planning document is around six pages long at this point and includes years of work." (source)

PS2: It surprises even me that the forum topic about finally banning that filthy RMT site somehow turned into a Goon hate, despite Goons are innocent in this (and their propaganda site isn't involved in any form of RMT). If someone finds a way to channel this Goon hate into a form that is more productive than posting, Goons will be evicted in a week.

PS3: I really hope it was a Pasta fisher. I mean if it's legit, the incursion community is doomed:

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