Greedy Goblin

Friday, January 20, 2017

0/12/0 Nunu mid

First an important update about the research on League of Legends rigging: I made a pretty dumb mistake. As I refined the algorithm to separate games into "Easy Win", "Fair" and "Exploit or sure loss" types I didn't update the old classifications. I mean if I had a game that I wrongfully classified "Exploit" than the win or loss result polluted the new Exploit results. If I lost that game it's not because Exploit mode doesn't work but because that game wasn't to be exploited. Realizing that, I collected such old games into a "Mistake" column and the rest of the data cleared up wonderfully. Obviously most "Mistakes" are lost, since playing a fair game in Exploit mode is throwing the game, while playing normally a game that is to be exploited is 25% winrate. No, the Mistakes are not from the prison weekend, they are mostly from the earliest data when I used a very primitive method compared to the recent.

I also recognized another "Easy win" criteria, applying that the games classified "Easy Win" doubled. Luckily no "Mistake" type here, since Easy wins were played very similarly to fair games, I simply moved them. Now that they are separated, I can design different playstyles for them to increase winrates. Since the latest formula, there are no longer "internal scales" that triggered the damn dodging that set me back. I mean I no longer able to guess the outcome of the game within a class. With that:

With the new formulas (which will make perfect sense with definitions) the ratios of the games make more sense: most games are fair, and there are an equal amount of games where you get a free win boosting buyers and necessary loss when you lose to buyers. You can increase your winrate by winning some "sure lost" games. Without the exploit, that bar would be the opposite of the Easy win. For clarity: the classification formula uses only objective variables from op.gg data. Not like it means anything without definitions, but there are 4 types (A,B,C,D) and
  • Easy win is coming if (D - C > 1) or ((D > 0) and (A - B > 1))
  • Exploit mode is needed if (B - A/2 - C/2 - D > -1) or (A > 2)
If both flags are true, Easy win is stronger. You probably guessed that D are the buyers. For those who claim I "cherry pick" data and move losses to "mistakes", that's obviously true. I refined the formulas to pinpoint wins. However - unless I change them again - there will be no more "mistakes", so if I was fitting to historical random noise, the future will be random noise. So the real test is the how the formula performs from this point.

However the post is about this wonderful specimen. He has 5 games in this season and he lost 4. One of the losses were on my team, where he picked mid nunu and managed to reach 0/12/0 which must be a record. His items are were also pretty interesting. His complete resistance to advices and his insistance that he's a platinum smurf who will carry the game are kind of normal in League of Legends.

What is absolutely not normal is having this useless idiot placed in a game with and against Silver players. He is definitely Bronze 5 and will find his place after enough losses. However until it happens, he'll guarantee defeat to any team that is cursed with his presence. No, he isn't a boosted buyer. Then the matchmaker would simply place him into Bronze 5 teams where he can win. He is a tool in the hand of the matchmaker to give a free win to the other team. Since he is unranked, there is plausible deniability of purposeful misplacement. I mean if one team is full gold, the other is 4 gold, 1 bronze 5, it's clear that the matchmaker is rigged. But if he is unranked, it's a honest placement mistake. Of course it's not. It would be trivial to demand 10 normal games before playing ranked to assess an approximate placement (for him: Bronze 15).

Since LoL is a free game, there are bunch of kids who play a few games and quit. During their short stay they can be used to rig games. Against them even the exploit mode has limited power. Not to mention it's pretty hard to properly identify them due to them having no data to evaluate. He can be a platinum smurf as far as I know before the game. Riot - having much more data, including the data from leveling games - can surely identify if he is a smurf or a moron who will pick Nunu mid and reaches 0/12/0.

Thursday, January 19, 2017

Once bitten, twice shy

I have clear evidence that Riot games rigs ranked games to give advantage to paying players. But I don't give you that evidence yet. You got to believe me. - yes, it sounds pathetic enough.

Maxim suggested the prudent thing: publish any partial result I have for "peer review". So you can not only verify, but further contribute to it. I won't, because Riot isn't a scientific object but a malicious actor which is obviously ready to protect itself from being exposed.

Currently I'm safe from their sabotage, because I'm a nobody with nothing. If they'd go after every dude on the internet who flamed them about Elo Hell, they'd need a much larger staff. "league of legends rigged" gives 300K hits and all the top hits are ridiculous whines. Also, doing malicious acts isn't as easy as it seems. Most people are not evil and even the "evil" ones can do good for fame and glory. I'm sure that 99% of Riot employees would truthfully claim: "to my knowledge LoL is a fair game and funded by vanity purchases of fans". A boss can't just give the order: "hey Joe, skew the games of Gevlon because he is on us", mostly because Joe has no idea that the games can be skewed - maybe outside of the prison that can be excused front of employees as "necessary evil to reform toxic players". Every employee knowing about the rigging is another chance of internal logs showing up on reddit.

If Riot devs read my blog - it's a pretty high traffic gaming blog - they don't know if I have anything against them or just flinging poo to excuse why am I not in platinum. As soon as they'd see the key point in print, they would personally intervene, just like CCP Falcon did when MoA started to flip Imperium Sov in 2015 July. Until I became a direct threat to his deals with Goons, he sat silent and hoped I just go away.

So I'm sorry for keeping you in suspense. It's not some nefarious plan, it's not for increasing traffic, it's merely to win time to get better results.

Wednesday, January 18, 2017

The dodge prison did not skew the League data

I was worried that being placed to the "prison" causes more than wasted time in League of Legends. After all, one can claim that there is no prison at all, just random events created my previous results and now the same random events took them away. Luckily it's not the case, probably because the same algorithm is used to rig for paying players that is used to rig against "offenders":
Actually my prison weekend data increases the result that the biggest predictor of win is having "type D" players in your group. Every single group has the same representation disparity in both dataset. Please note that the scale is % of teammates, so on both graphs the sum of the green bars is 100 and the sum of the red bars is also 100, so the difference in winrate is not visible. Which is also not important. You can claim that on the weekend I was unlucky or I played badly for some reason but it doesn't matter: the games were still stacked in one way.

I'm now working on the final iteration of the exploit mode and will publish the results, regardless of my position on the ladder. Sure, I prefer to climb higher than ever to prove how well it works. From that perspective, the prison island was a setback. On the other hand, it's an extra proof that Riot manipulates your winrate whenever they please.

Also, I'm clearly out of the prison now:

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

The weirdest thing about the Buzzfeed scandal

No, not politics post, social-bashing! You probably heard that Buzzfeed and CNN ran an - admittedly unverified - story that Donald Trump took part in some "private time" that included peeing on the mattress. Then - as expected - the internet was all over it. The real problem is not that the story is so obviously fake that more somewhat reputable media refused to publish it during the campaign season, despite it was distributed months ago. Even the Clinton campaign refused to air it in fear that it backfires on them.

No, the real problem is how all the comedians and "joking" media jumped on it. How it isn't condemned by politicians and the rest of the media. How Buzzfeed and CNN didn't became instantly boycotted by everyone. Why should they be? Because there is a more disgusting and toxic thing than pee: feces. The pee of of a person is mostly sterile, save for the patients of a few infections. You can't get most STDs, including AIDS from touching the pee of a patient. Feces is never sterile. You can get all gastro-intestinal diseases by interacting with feces of the infected, that's how they are contracted: the ill person doesn't wash his hands after toilet and leave milligrams of feces on the furniture and you touch it and then don't wash your hands before touching food. For the same reason we have both strong senses for feces, its smell is very detectable by our nose and also very strong feeling of disgust of it.

So we can agree that any "private" activity involving feces is much worse than one involving pee. And there is a very common such activity: anal sex. It's the main activity of gays, therefore the slur "shitcock". A word that no mainstream media person or comedian would use and expect to keep his job. No one would dare to go around and make fun of gays, despite what they do is objectively more hazardous - think of the high AIDS rate among gays - than what Trump is accused with.

The thing is that if Trump really did what this smear peace accuses him, he is a member of a sexual minority and for that he is mocked and ridiculed by the mainstream media and joked around over the internet. This shows how the behavior of socials isn't consequent, but simply "I do what others do". Ridiculing gays became a taboo and everyone is all over protecting the "LGBTTQQFAGPBDSM" community and calling anyone bigot who dares to criticize them. Then, they do just that with someone they don't like.

Finally, the whole document is crazy: they claim that Russia blackmailed Trump with this. How?! Trump survived 12 rape accusers and the "grab them" tape. The current claims are ... piss against the wind.

Monday, January 16, 2017

League of Legends prison

Over the last weeks I had 57.5% winrate in League of Legends. Now check out my last 40 games:

25 losses, 15 wins. What's the chance of this happening by bad luck?
And it's not just that I've "lost". I saw more AFK-ers, DC-ers in the last weekend than I saw in the last month. I got a botter whose bot bugged and just followed me around in the jungle. I got a totally new player, I wonder what he does in Mid-Silver (and yes, he played exactly like my mum would if I'd give him an account). I had extreme collection of toxic guys. And - on the opposing team - I saw absolutely oppressive good play. I've learned more about jungle tricks from a few Kha, Shacko and Lee in the last weekend than I learned in months.

It was clear that the matchmaker wanted me to lose and not just the usual way. While I identified that about 40% of the games are meant to be lost, it's not because of me, but because of giving a free win for the buyers on the other side. That's why the exploit works: I know that they are boosted baddies and figured out how to break that. By the way I barely saw such games, I found 11 out of 40 and won only 2, because they weren't "normal exploits" (I declare the game one way or another based on champion history of teammates which is far from perfect, but good enough). Most games were "fair" and I lost them by a large margin.

Why? Because last Friday I analyzed the data and figured out a "shortcut to gold". I classify the games into "easy win", "fair", and "exploit", but I also realized how the outcome of the games is predictable within classes. For example a fair game with more teammates with high winrate is more likely won than one with baddies (go figure!). Exploit games also have a - pretty surprising - prediction method. This is much less predictive than the main classification (free wins have 80%+ winrate, fair games have 55% and exploited games played without exploit have 25%). But still, by the "goods - bads" prediction I could split the fair games into halves, one with 65% winrate and one with 45%. So why should I waste time? Let's dodge the lower half!

That's when and why everything went crazy! The game really hates queue dodgers since they both cheat (it gives advantage even if the matchmaker is fair) and because it wastes 5-10 minutes of 9 players. Punishing queue dodgers is a fair idea. So is punishing toxic players, botters and quitters. But instead of banning their accounts (they just make one new free) or giving out some in-game punishment (hey, they can just drop their account and make one new free), they put them to a "prison zone" and give them losses, by giving them each other as teammates and way better enemies.

It's actually genius. The dodgers don't know that they've lost because of being punished, they think that whatever dodge formula they made up is not working. The toxic people don't realize that they've lost because they are punished, they are given the famous loading screen quote "players who criticize teammates after a mistake lose 25% more games"! Botters believe that their bots are badly written and quitters - well, they quit. The really new players who play ranked on an account they haven't used for years (or just bought on ebay) will lose anyway, so they can lose in the prison, serving punishment to the inmates instead of annoying honest teammates.

While I admit that this is a genius plan, it's also a perfect example of the matchmaker being totally rigged. I haven't dodged on Sunday and I wonder how many lost games or real days I have to serve in the prison before I can return to evaluating the "normal" rigging again, the one which is aimed to help the paying players.

Update: I played one more late night and lost to another AFK-er. But after midnight we won! So from the sample of one I dare to say that my day of imprisonment is over. One can hope.

Friday, January 13, 2017

More nukes for peace!

Both Trump and Putin announced their plans for increasing their nuclear weapon capacities. Needless to say that liberals went crazy over the impending doom. They are totally wrong. A nuclear arms race is the best thing that can be done for peace.

Conventional weapons can be and routinely are paraded in conflict zones as show of force. From there it only needs an idiot to start shooting. Nuclear weapons are much more conservatively handled, if not for else than out of fear of losing them in an accident. It's a no-brainer that provoking the opponent by parading weapons front of him is a bad idea if you want peace.

Conventional weapons can be and routinely are used in low-intensity conflicts, targeted strikes and other war-without-declaration actions. These conflicts than spiral out of hand and and create a real war, like it happened in Ukraine. Nukes can't be used for that.

Conventional weapons can be and routinely are given to proxies and friendly militias to carry out one's bidding. This went great in Syria, right? These proxies often can't be controlled and turn on their former masters or just go on a genocide. No one in his right mind would - and there is no precedent in history that anyone did - give a nuke to some Islamist militia wishing and hoping that they will only use it against the regime he doesn't like and won't join the An-Nusra the next week.

In summary, conventional weapons are used in an escalating manner, hoping that a limited military action will scare off the opponent, while in reality he just escalates back. Nukes can only be used in an "all in" manner, that leaders don't want and never did since WW2.

In an utopia where countries would only have nukes there would be only two possibilities: peace and total destruction. No one wants total destruction. Wars happen because leaders think they can win easily. They are wrong, just ask W. Bush. A nuclear buildup, especially if matched with limiting funds on conventional weapons and deployments will move the World towards this utopia, therefore to peace.

Thursday, January 12, 2017

Another League of Legends update

Riot announced a Warwick update. Deploying that update (it's currently on test server) will end my project anyway, as the new Warwick has skill moves that means constantly increasing skill with games skew any result.

I'm understanding the matchmaker even better. There are three kinds of teams, determined before the actual games starts:
  • Easy wins: games where the matchmaker clearly wants us to win.
  • Exploited defeats: games where the matchmaker clearly wants us to lose, but I still win more than half, thanks to understanding the weakness of the "Easy win" team on the other side.
  • Fair games: the matchmaker can't care less who wins.
Below you can see how these teams have very different matchups and how their internal win chance can be determined by the distribution of teammates. I mean if a team has lots of Type C members, exploit mode is my only chance and having some Type B predicts that I win, while Type A signs a likely loss. I try anyway as a few wins against the odds rises the winrate over 50% in these cases. I'm also considering dodging these games. Currently I only dodge if I don't get jungle role or someone picks/bans Warwick.


The most important is to see how even is the type distribution of the fair games and how uneven it is for unfair games. Anyway, the solution is clearly working:

This Monday or the next, depending on how fast I can climb I post the final results with the explanation of the Types which will clearly prove that Riot is acting maliciously.